UCDChina注：这篇文章来自知乎的一个问题，节选了姚旭同学的答案汇编成一篇文章。
问：
现在PM动不动就拿数据说话，找RD跑数据，有些数据是肯定必要的，有些数据是可要可不要的，比如对于某项目,PM凭经验可说4级以上的用户可xxx，这时候会有人跳出来问，为什么不是3级、5级？拿出数据来。 实际上真看了数据又能看出什么呢？看完后无非是再次验证了4级，而且看了数据后主管判断还是PM来下的。 再比如有的功能是肯定要上的，但领导会说，调研一下有没有必要，评估数据搞半个月，评估的结果是：嗯，可做。 实际上，该功能整个平台的用户都希望做，是没有必要耗费人力评估的，只要做就可以了。 很多数据和评估是必要的，但有些很形式化，请问有意义吗？
答：
数据分析是一种靠谱的产品研究方法, 这玩意有很多误区, 也不能迷信, 最终到头来还是要人来做决策
二战时英国空军为了降低飞机的损失，决定给飞机的机身进行装甲加固。由于当时条件所限，只能用装甲加固飞机上的少数部位。他们对执行完轰炸任务返航的飞机进行仔细的观察、分析、统计。发现大多数的弹孔，都集中在飞机的机翼上；只有少数弹孔位于驾驶舱。从数据上说, 加固机翼的性价比最高. 但实际情况缺恰恰相反, 驾驶舱才是最应加固的地方, 因为驾驶舱被击中的飞机几乎都没飞回来.“发声”的数据是最好获取的, 但如果没把这些沉默的数据考虑进来, 那么这种数据分析是不靠谱的. 所以除了数据的结果, 还得尝试解读这些数据. 而解读数据就完全依赖人了.
2家网站A和B，都经营类似的业务，都有稳定的用户群。它们都进行了类似的网站界面改版。改版之后，网站A没有得到用户的赞扬，反而遭到很多用户的臭骂；而网站B既没有用户夸它，也没有用户骂它。如果从数据来看, 应该是网站B的改版相对更成功, 因为没有用户表达不满。但事实并非如此。网站A虽然遭到很多用户痛骂，但说明还有很多用户在乎它；对于网站B，用户对它已经不关心它了.网站A指的是Facebook，网站B是微软旗下的Live Space。
通常认为数据分析指导工作是一种高性价比的做法, 不容易犯错, 对于代表资方的管理层来说, 比起依赖于人的决策, 依赖于数据的决策似乎更稳健.
这种决策在从0.5向0.8的产品改进上, 可能是有效的. 因为一个已有的产品, 数据就摆在那. 100个用户50个访问超时, 解决了这个问题, 就提升了50%的效果.
但对于从0到0.1的新产品上, 由于数据很难获取, 需要花大力气在获取模拟数据上. 往往是用一周时间去想明白一个做两个小时的产品该不该做的问题. 而且模拟的结果还和最终实际相差很远.
A/B test或是原型系统, 先做出来, 再去验证, 在一些场合下比先拿数据要有效的多.
为了减少内耗, 往往依赖于数据来做决断. 我一直认为数据本身是带有主观性的, 完全客观的数据是没有的. 数据的获取方法, 数据的解读方法, 数据的统计方法, 都是人的决策. 一份数据拿出两个相反的结论来也不是没有可能. 即使主观上没有偏向性, 也受限于方法和视野.
决策上最终起作用的还是人不是数据. 虽然人有那么多的不确定性, 还可能出现争论, 扯皮, 不敢承担责任.
部分内容节选自: 编程随想–思维的误区http://blog.csdn.net/program_think/article/details/5748406
源地址：http://www.zhihu.com/ques……tion/19615108
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